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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
Futures markets opened mixed but slipped into negative territory by mid‑session as traders engaged in end‑of‑week profit taking and consolidation. The lack of fresh domestic news left markets vulnerable, while external geopolitical developments dominated headlines. Growing concerns over the US‑Iran conflict are amplifying fears of sustained energy price pressure, with Saudi Arabia projecting $180 a barrel for crude and Qatar warning of a 3‑5‑year lag to restore natural‑gas output. These dynamics are feeding uncertainty about global commodity demand.
Unusual options activity on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) spiked as geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices and pressured S&P futures. Despite solid year‑to‑date returns—11.39% in 2024 and 12.66% in 2025— IWM’s early rally faded, prompting investors to buy protective puts....
On March 20, 2026 the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) will apply special pricing to Tradr 2X Short DASH Daily ETF (DASX) options because DASX shares have been suspended from trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange. For expiration calculations OCC will use the last reported trade price...
ProShares Russell 2000 High Income ETF (ITWO) combines direct exposure to the Russell 2000 with a 0‑day‑to‑expiration covered‑call overlay, aiming to deliver both growth and income. Over the past twelve months the fund outperformed peer covered‑call ETFs, benefitting from its aggressive...
Shopify (SHOP) is regaining momentum as it rolls out AI‑driven features and projects over 30% revenue growth for Q1, with earnings due in May. Analysts have modestly lifted FY2026 earnings estimates, now forecasting $1.78 per share, a 52% year‑over‑year increase....
Euronext has launched the Nord Pool Power Futures market, covering Nordic and Baltic electricity contracts, and went live on 16 March 2026. The transition moved 100 % of open interest—173 TWh—to Euronext Clearing, bringing 86 participants and 16 clearing members onto the Optiq® platform. The...
Here's how I took a 1,000% trade on $SPY today. $660 had the greatest exposure on the Interval Map. $655 was the downside target. $SPY rejected near $660 and dropped near $655. Multiple times. That range held all day. In the afternoon, I entered...
Natural gas futures slipped Friday as traders weighed heightened Middle East war risk and a sharp rise in U.S. storage. The U.S. South Central region logged a 26 Bcf injection, pushing inventories to 721 Bcf, still 30 Bcf below the five‑year average. The...
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that a set of S&P 500 INDEX PM/EURO flex options currently trading under the 4SPX symbol will be consolidated into the SPXW C series. The transition applies to ten contracts with expirations ranging from April to...
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
New Gold Inc. completed its merger with Coeur Mining, converting each NGD share into roughly 0.4959 CDE shares. The Options Clearing Corporation adjusted NGD options, raising the contract multiplier from 1 to 100 and setting the deliverable to 50 CDE...
Coinbase has launched perpetual stock futures for eligible non‑U.S. retail and institutional clients, expanding its derivatives suite into U.S. equities. The contracts cover the Magnificent 7 stocks and ETFs such as SPY and QQQ, trade 24/7, and settle in USDC. Leverage...
The author introduces a calendar‑month realized volatility (CMRV) metric that computes monthly volatility by annualizing the square‑root of the mean squared daily log returns, eliminating the overlap inherent in a trailing 20‑day window. This approach prevents a large earnings‑driven move...
Major League Baseball announced an exclusive partnership with prediction‑market platform Polymarket and a memorandum of understanding with CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig. The deals grant Polymarket access to MLB logos and official data while establishing a joint integrity framework to...
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
Vegetable oil futures, led by crude palm oil (CPO) and CME soybean oil, surged amid rising crude oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. The most active May CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia rose 0.93% to 4,541 ringgit per tonne,...
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Assembling a team. We stop this right now, at any cost. Activists gonna find out what the angry 0DTE option mob can do
NEOS MSCI EAFE High Income ETF (NIHI) employs a collar option‑spread on international equities to deliver roughly a 10% yield, paid monthly and designed for tax‑efficient payouts. The overlay caps upside participation while providing limited downside protection, appealing to income‑focused...
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC announces Futures Commission Merchants can accept Bitcoin as margin collateral. https://t.co/oNOW4PB9po
a quick little trading inspiration.. track the implied delta of the >90 market on poly compared to the corresponding futures price by tracking its price change. For example if the market went to 75% on a $1 rally then it's a...
Adjusted Meridian Holdings Inc. (formerly Golden Matrix Group) options were modified on March 3, 2026, creating a new deliverable of eight MRDN shares plus a cash‑in‑lie payment of $2.55 per contract. The cash portion, based on a $7.65 share price and a...
Today, options worth $5.7 trillion are expiring - it’s a ‘triple witching day’ and one of the largest volumes in recent years. This accounts for about 8.4% of the entire market, which is significantly above the usual level. Against the backdrop...
Big sentiment flip in silver riskies recently...driven both by put skew rallying and call skew getting hit https://t.co/uxFWp2eClV
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) issued a memo that special pricing will apply to HIMZ1/2HIMZ1 options expiring on March 20, 2026 because the cash‑in‑lieu amount for fractional shares has not been set. Each contract delivers seven Defiance Daily Target 2X Long HIMS ETF...
USO trades in January and March 2028 are actually call butterflies today as 125/185/245 seeing plenty of upside for Oil
Will $SPX unclench up or down next week? It has been pretty consistent for a while now fwiw
S&P Dow Jones Indices has licensed its S&P 500® to Trade[XYZ] for a perpetual futures contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain, creating the first officially authorized 24/7 on‑chain derivative tied to the benchmark. The product targets eligible non‑U.S. investors and leverages...
GC, SI and HG will all have 7 closes below the 5 SMA today. https://t.co/9wuK7cjvOG
$FDX "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 347.50/352.50 Call Spread ($3.50) and sell the March 325 Put for 50 cents." puts expire, sell call spread near $5 or watch max out at a 10x
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Vol premium is near historic highs. But VIX is only 25. On the latest OPEX Effect on @excessreturnpod, @spotgamma explains what’s going on behind the scenes and what it could mean for the market. https://t.co/fKAHUZs21I
Good morning. I’m on the road so limited contact from me. Spx futures-25 as “Boots on the ground” gets floated. Simplify it for today. Do we reclaim $655-$657.50 to relieve pressure. Or do we see $650.50 which looks...
The swaps mkt discounted slightly more than BOE 3 hikes this year. Surely that is exaggerated. The mkt has 70 bp of ECB hikes discounted. Despite the hawks trying to outflank Lagarde's moderate tone, that too seems a...
Months ago well before the war inside the oil thread there was this. At the time you simply cannot predict a catalyst let alone this one but the larger pt is odds and setups. $CL_F $GLD https://t.co/tdubAxcT6a
Alright, y'all, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. This post from @bxunit very much says it is truly exclusive. "While this is the first product of its kind, it is also the only official S&P 500 perp product, meaning trade[XYZ]...
For those of you trying to figure out what's going on with the Brent-WTI spread. Let me point out an old gem that helps explain it. - Different delivery date windows - Different contract expiration dates - When things are volatile, individual...
Here's a question for options nerds Ignoring if it's "right" or "wrong" whether it's caused by paper flow or some expectations. Is baseline assumption in modern option thinking that each expiries vol skew represents an implied PDF and the vol...
just a reminder that tomorrow is "quadruple witching" volatility today may in part be attributed to the hedging of options traders
Calls doubled on that move but reject at VWAP, likely round trip them waiting for the rip yo face off that never comes lol. But, worth the risk if it does 🤷♂️
A close below the horizontal line shown below on the chart of the June S&P 500 E-Mini may not bode well for equities..... https://t.co/sQT9z0yJfP
option flows don't always control the mkt, real bad call on Mar 5, too myopic in blowing off the macro https://t.co/hLBe0RyCYC
You can pull up this type of chart on almost any symbol and see that the VRP tends to be fatter when vol is low This is PLTR Written about it in lots of places. https://t.co/zUpvOPQB7T
YPF now seeing buyers 3500 May $42 calls for $3.15 to $3.20, nice run already from last week write up https://t.co/4fVGR5BExA
Worst asset performers relative to their own vols in the past month on my watchlist Homebuilders, high yield credit, world equity index https://t.co/gpd005m2Yi
Moontower Thursday 🌙Sold some puts on a turd so then I needed to like look at it and stuff 🌙Exploring the link between revenue seasonality and volatility You'll find several ways of looking at data to test your own ideas. https://t.co/nO8SPhrkJm https://t.co/MMfM6hW9aP
$GLD put of the day, 450 opex from $1-30, inciting a dealer dumpathon ON https://t.co/jU8qmVi9bh
$VIX: 27.85 on March 13. 21.51 now. A 6+ point collapse in one week while oil trades near $100, the Fed just held, and private credit is cracking. Complacency doesn't announce itself. It just shows up in the $VIX. https://t.co/QOUSwv6YZ0
Ultra Crude (UCO) buyer 1000 October $55 calls $9.80 to $10.50 Oh boy... $300 tank fill up incoming
