US Economy Blogs and Articles
US Economy Blogs and Articles
US Economy Pulse
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Politicus USA and the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget dissected Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal, highlighting a dramatic surge in defense spending to $1.5 trillion. The plan adds $350 billion through a new reconciliation bill and $251 billion to base defense discretionary funds, while offering only a modest $73 billion cut to non‑defense programs. The budget projects a reduction of federal debt to 94% of GDP by 2036, relying on an optimistic 3% annual real GDP growth assumption. No official topline figures are provided, leaving the outlook largely speculative.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped dramatically in March, reversing a sharp decline seen in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The surge was driven largely by returning healthcare workers and a hiring wave in transportation and courier services. While...
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
The Institute for Supply Management reported a third consecutive month of expansion in its Manufacturing PMI, signaling continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This upbeat data directly challenges recent headlines that linked rising job losses to the perceived failure...
The Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs nowcast shows private domestic final demand, often called “core GDP,” is decelerating. The latest chart reveals growth falling below the 2023‑24 stochastic trend and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median. All nowcasts rely...
President Donald Trump told a White House Easter audience that the federal government cannot continue funding Medicare, Medicaid, or daycare because escalating military costs from the Iran war are draining the budget. He suggested that states should assume responsibility for...
Revelio Labs released an alternative hiring impulse metric for the United States, estimating that the economy added fewer than 20,000 jobs on a net basis. The figure was published ahead of the official Good Friday Bureau of Labor Statistics employment...
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee released updated coincident indicators covering nonfarm payroll, monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, and freight services, all normalized to January 2025. Preliminary benchmark revisions show a modest slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth and a deceleration...
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in the latest Census Bureau report, indicating solid nominal spending on the eve of the looming Iran conflict. Despite an overall price level that is roughly 30% higher than at the start of the decade,...
U.S. retail sales for February were released three weeks late but showed a modest rebound. Nominal sales rose 0.6% month‑over‑month, translating to a 0.3% gain in real terms after accounting for 0.3% inflation. On a year‑over‑year basis, real retail sales...
The ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, well above the 40,000 consensus estimate. Economists had forecast a modest gain, making the actual figure 22,000 higher than expected. The prior month’s ADP data...
Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Daily Feather post introduces a “fifth element” in the U.S. labor market—labor‑shock capitulation—pointing to a sharp drop in quits, rising job‑insecurity metrics, and a contraction in JOLTS job openings. She argues these signals foretell a structural weakening...
Senate Bill 513, approved by Connecticut's Finance Committee, would extend the federal pass‑through entity tax credit to middle‑income earners making over $50,000, offering roughly $1,100 in annual savings. The program lets participants voluntarily reduce their salary in exchange for a...
Job openings slipped to 6.9 million in February, down from 7.2 million in January, while total hires fell to 4.8 million, pushing the hiring rate to a low 3.1 %—the weakest since April 2020. Quits edged lower to 3.1 million and layoffs held steady at 1.7 million,...
