Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
A bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation to eliminate the Social Security retirement earnings test, a rule that currently cuts benefits for workers aged 62‑66. The bill projects adding 166,000‑1.035 million workers, raising personal incomes by $10.5‑$65.7 billion and generating up to $17.9 billion in extra tax revenue each year.
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
Employers across the United States are reporting a slowdown in hiring while layoffs remain modest, creating a "low‑hire, low‑fire" environment. AI‑driven capital spending, exemplified by Meta's $10 billion data‑center project, fuels short‑term job spikes but also fuels fears of longer‑term displacement,...
"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 205,000."
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Initial unemployment claims held steady at 210.5 k, matching the prior week and hovering near the lowest levels recorded since 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.819 million, the smallest figure since May 2024, reinforcing the trend of a tight labor market. Bloomberg’s sentiment...
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 26, 2026 🚨 Quiet data day but Fed speakers take center stage — markets watching for tone shifts as rate expectations remain in focus 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0830 - Initial Jobless Claims: Exp. 210K; Prev. 205K 1600...
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Zillow Group said the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.48% on March 25 and released three scenarios that model how the rate’s duration could affect home‑buyer behavior. The forecast underscores lingering affordability pressure even as rates dip slightly.
Gold prices slipped sharply after U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month‑over‑month, reviving fears of persistent inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to signal further rate hikes. The move underscores growing market anxiety over the Fed’s dual mandate.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, led by Administrator Lee Zeldin, approved a short‑term waiver permitting nationwide sales of E15 gasoline from May 1 to May 20. The move targets near‑$4‑per‑gallon pump prices that have surged amid the Iran war, while sparking debate...
On March 10, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released “Break Glass,” warning that the U.S. has virtually no fiscal space to absorb another shock. National debt has climbed to roughly 130% of GDP, surpassing the World War II peak...
Redfin reports 629,808 more sellers than buyers in February, the largest gap since 2013 and the strongest buyer’s market on record. The surplus is tempering home‑price gains even as mortgage rates hover above 6%.
President Donald Trump asserted that the average U.S. gasoline price had fallen to $2.31 per gallon, but a Pulse fact‑check shows the actual average was $2.91 at the time of his State of the Union address. The discrepancy underscores how...
Paychex (PAYX) posted $1.8 billion in third‑quarter revenue, up 20% year over year, and returned $463 million to shareholders through stock repurchases. The results underscore accelerating demand for payroll and HR solutions as employers grapple with a cost‑of‑living squeeze.
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Several leading U.S. restaurant chains announced the closure of dozens of locations in the past 24 hours, pointing to weakened consumer demand after the detection of a highly mutated COVID‑19 variant and soaring operating costs. The moves underscore mounting pressure...
Why would we borrow *more* to build a savings fund? Unless we're going to get our fiscal house in order and fund gov't spending differently, I don't understand the rationale here. Further, federal resource revenues are small. The vast majority...
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
U.S. equities retreated on Tuesday as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% amid fresh missile strikes in the Middle East and contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and Tehran. The market...
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Gas was $2.93/gallon a month ago. It's $3.88 now. That's a 32% jump. The consumer was already stretched. Now they're paying it at the pump. Inflation isn't just a Fed problem. It's a kitchen table problem. $SPY $XLE https://t.co/eyD0h4taV8
The February 2026 jobs report revealed a modest 92,000‑person decline in U.S. payrolls, driven largely by government layoffs and the resolution of a nurses’ strike. While overall employment slipped, service and frontline positions remained stable, with quit rates climbing and...
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
For those who think a billionaire’s tax doesn’t affect them, the threshold has just been lowered to $ 50mm. At this rate, you’re next?!
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
There Goes the Spring Selling Season: Mortgage Rates Jump, Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop. Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen https://t.co/sR0N0Jznl0 https://t.co/Hkfy4IziDs
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
From my receipts catalog: Joe Biden’s last quarter in Office. Like Michael Jackson once sang, “Do you remember the time?” Unemployment frolm record low of 3.2%, Inflation falling, consumer confidence rising, retail sales up, stock market stable and rising, black unemploymentT...
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. Source: Tax...
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
Once I got started on this piece, the numbers started talking to me, and by the end they were screaming. So I feel like I've got to share it with you: The Federal Employee Crisis Nobody's Talking About. https://t.co/6rdnuvxTW9
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
