Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
A MarketWatch analysis shows U.S. rent growth has slowed to its weakest pace in years, reducing pressure on the consumer‑price index. The deceleration comes as other inflation gauges, such as unit labor costs, remain elevated, leaving the Federal Reserve with a mixed outlook.
Unemployment in the US is reaching critical levels. The average job search duration has risen to 25.7 weeks-the highest in four years. Since October 2023, the duration has increased by 6.3 weeks, marking the fastest growth since the COVID period. When it becomes...
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
The latest two‑year Treasury note auction attracted below‑average demand, sending the yield down four basis points to 3.86%. The softening appetite reflects waning safe‑haven appeal as investors weigh Middle‑East tensions and a mixed equity outlook.
The Federal Reserve, FDIC and OCC voted on March 19 to overhaul reserve‑requirement rules for the nation’s largest banks, cutting capital buffers by up to 7.8%. The change releases roughly $175 billion of excess equity, paving the way for more aggressive...
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
The escalating war with Iran is hitting the U.S. rental market just as spring home‑buying optimism waned. Higher energy prices and supply‑chain disruptions are pushing landlords to raise rents, while prospective buyers face tighter credit and lingering mortgage‑rate uncertainty. The...
Powell's Inflation Excuse – It's All BS! Powell: "Inflation was global so you can't blame us." Me: That's BS. Every central bank made the same mistake – cutting rates, printing money, flooding economies. That doesn't excuse the Fed. It proves they ALL...
The U.S. regulator’s latest proposal to ease capital adequacy rules for the nation’s largest banks marks a reversal of post‑2008 reforms aimed at curbing systemic risk. Critics argue the move weakens loss‑absorbing buffers, reviving the “too‑big‑to‑fail” dynamic that forces taxpayers...
Gallup's latest quarterly survey reveals that just 28% of American workers think now is a good time to find a quality job, a 42‑point plunge from mid‑2022. The shift comes despite low unemployment, highlighting a growing disconnect between headline labor...
Since 2017, most household expenses have surged—groceries up 32%, electricity 45%, car insurance nearly doubled—yet wireless services have become cheaper. The BLS wireless telephone services index fell 10.4% from 51.7 in Q1 2017 to 46.3 in Q3 2025, delivering faster data and...
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
The education and health services sector has accounted for 109% of private-sector job creation since January 2025. via ADP
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
Walmart said its Q4 2026 earnings showed a surge in shoppers earning over $100,000 – now 17% of that group shop there, up from under 15% in 2021 – while households below $50,000 remain squeezed. The mix shift could reshape...
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
10-Year Yield Holds Uptrend as Inflation Nowcast Accelerates during #Quad3 The bond market isn’t buying the narrative. 📉📊 📈 10Y still making higher highs/lows 📊 Range: 4.20–4.43%
Morgan Stanley issued a stark research note warning that a hawkish Federal Reserve, rather than economic weakness, now poses the greatest risk to markets. The bank says investors are underestimating the Fed's inflation‑first stance after the March 18 FOMC held...
“I’m concerned recession risks are uncomfortably high and on the rise,” said @Markzandi “Recession is a real threat here.” https://t.co/rhvcxMLgtd
Wild swings in the US quarterly current account deficit over the course of 2025 -- from close to 6 pp of GDP in q1 to well under 3% of GDP in q4 ... 1/ https://t.co/2EuT5nM3jZ
UK inflation held steady in February 2026, with the consumer price index unchanged at 3% and CPIH at 3.2%, while the retail price index slipped to 3.6%. The ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran has sparked an energy crisis deemed worse...
UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be...
While the 10-year yield broke out of a short term range, the weekly chart below still shows bonds holding within a long triangle (in place since 2022). If it breaks, it will be a problem not only for bonds but...
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case. https://t.co/mq0q2S2nBU
The last time there was notable chatter about America entering a recession...it didn't happen...markets kept its steady climb... Will it be the same this time around? Vote here & we'll go through the poll results at the top of today's show...
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
Factory construction was down 15% over the last year, even before adjusting for inflation https://t.co/YNFjjiLWfV Reality hasn't heard about Trump's $18 trillion in investment coming into the country. Trump always says, "no one has seen anything like it," which is...
the @federalreserve has cut interest rates six times since Sep '244 and U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen from 3.7% to 4.4% since that cutting program began... https://t.co/EQHFpoQsIC
The U.S. Treasury Department has assumed responsibility for the federal student loan portfolio previously managed by the Education Department, signaling a sweeping policy change. The move, announced on March 24, 2026, could reshape financing for higher‑education and workforce‑training programs and...
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns...
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...
Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was abruptly dismissed by President Trump on August 1, 2025. She recounts a chaotic termination day and a prior encounter with the Department of Government Efficiency, which proposed replacing statisticians with...
10Y treasury back to where it was at Trumps inauguration. Its increased almost 0.5% since the Iran war started in a sign that the market worries do the long term effects of Trump’s chaotic presidency. That makes mortgages more expensive. 1Y...
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke...
the writing has been on the wall... but still most will continue to scoff it off and kick the can down the road, as the politicians similarly do... The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it https://t.co/6xs6EPNFXr
$5+ Diesel Could Unleash Inflationary Mindset the Fed Better Not “Look Through.” Inflation Was already Hot before Iran War. When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train https://t.co/51qim5kPk6 https://t.co/cBfjwNFSno
The Federal Communications Commission announced a ban on importing foreign‑made consumer wireless routers, citing national‑security concerns. The move threatens to upend the U.S. consumer‑electronics supply chain, prompting industry alarm and debate over the agency’s authority.
Redbook retail sales ... no sign of consumer spending stress yet +6.7% YoY WE March 21 https://t.co/8GFoXUdydC
So far, entry-level share of employment in legal, financial, & office admin occupations doesn't look functionally different from pre-2023 trends (the population is aging so important to benchmark). A bit above trend for legal, a bit below for finance, in...
The US Money Supply grew 5% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since June 2022. After a brief hiatus, money printing is back. https://t.co/bnnPEsB9x6
"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO
“Today’s 2 yr auction was terrible:” @pboockvar The bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since May 2024 and dealers got stuck with the largest amount since October 2022. Traders are having a hard time pricing Fed policy as oil prices swing...
Perfect timing for a new book on inflation expectations. https://t.co/CpPzlHzxxf by Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko https://t.co/Cy5qOH9CED
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
