Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
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Every morning
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The U.S. Department of Labor and the National Science Foundation have formalized a partnership to launch the TechAccess: AI-Ready America initiative, allocating up to $224 million for 56 state and territory hubs. The program will study AI’s effect on employment, integrate training into existing workforce structures, and shape future HR‑tech policy.
Freddie Mac said the benchmark 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% from 6.38% last week, its highest level since early September. The rise mirrors a lift in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.3%, underscoring tighter credit conditions for homebuyers...
Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, eclipsing the 60,000 consensus estimate and pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health care, construction and transportation led the gains, while the Fed watches for rate‑cut signals.
Wells Fargo chief Charles Scharf warned the market with the three‑word phrase “Reasons to worry,” despite data showing resilient consumer spending and low unemployment. He cited soaring oil prices, higher gasoline costs and lingering market nervousness as the main threats...
𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 The reporter, David Lin, asks his guest "𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 (𝗙𝗲𝗱) 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? His guest, Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group states that "oil cuts both ways in terms...
U.S. job growth for February was revised lower by 41K, from an initial estimate of -92,000 to -133,000 jobs
Representative Henry Cuellar introduced the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, a House proposal that would issue direct payments of roughly $1,000 to $2,000 to eligible U.S. households. The legislation aims to offset an estimated $231 billion in consumer costs...
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026, signaling first contraction in over three years. ⦿ S&P Global US Composite PMI revised to 50.3 in March 2026, lowest since September 2023. ⦿ US economy added...
While the combination of tariffs and spending cuts in 2025 proved net disinflationary (benefiting USD bond markets), the current dramatic neo-con shift under the Trump administration is the exact opposite - inflationary and negative for bonds
The White House’s FY 2027 budget proposal slashes the Health and Human Services (HHS) discretionary budget by $15.8 billion, a 12.5% cut from FY 2026. The National Institutes of Health would see funding drop $5 billion to $41 billion, and several agencies—including the National Institute...
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
The Global Wellness Institute (GWI) announced that the United States wellness economy has reached $2.1 trillion, representing 7.33% of national GDP. The market grew at a 7.9% annual rate from 2019‑2024, with per‑capita spending surpassing $6,300. The data underscores the U.S....
Wall Street snapped its 5-week losing streak this week. S&P 500 +3.4%, Nasdaq +4.4%, Dow +3%. First positive week since the Iran war began. Then on Good Friday, a bombshell: 178,000 jobs added in March — triple the 59,000 expected....
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Redfin’s latest weekly data show median new‑listing prices edging up 2.47% to $424,975 and median sales rising 2% to $391,000, even as the national 30‑year mortgage rate nudged higher to 6.46%. The mixed signals highlight a market where price growth...
The White House unveiled its FY27 budget request, calling for $2.2 trillion overall with a 44% boost to national defense spending. Non‑defense outlays are slated to shrink by 10%, including a 26% cut to the Department of Labor’s $9.9 billion budget and...
Politicus USA and the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget dissected Donald Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposal, highlighting a dramatic surge in defense spending to $1.5 trillion. The plan adds $350 billion through a new reconciliation bill and $251 billion to base defense discretionary...
In the March employment report, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs—well above expectations—driven by rebounds in construction, leisure, hospitality, and a resolution of a health‑care strike that had hurt February’s numbers. Chief U.S. Economist Michael Ferole highlighted that the unemployment rate...
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
I do think its important to note it would not be shocking if manufacturing employment moves higher over the year. It is hard to say because of downstream losses from higher input costs, but factories are being completed. The Yale...
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts Marissa Di Natale and Chris Dorides dissect the March 2026 jobs report, highlighting a volatile payroll picture—178,000 jobs added after a revised February loss of 133,000—and a modest three‑month average gain...
U.S. manufacturing employment rebounded in March, adding 15,000 jobs—a 400% year‑over‑year increase after earlier losses. The transportation equipment and fabricated metal products sectors drove most of the gains, while the chemical industry posted the largest decline. Unemployment in manufacturing rose...
March jobs came in at 178K. Headline looks like a blowout. It will likely be interpreted as such. Payrolls: Too Hot. UE at 4.3%: Just Right. Worth noting: 32K of those jobs were striking workers at Kaiser and Starbucks coming back...
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were closed on Friday, April 3, 2026, in observance of Good Friday. The shutdown came after the Labor Department reported a robust March jobs gain of 178,000 and a drop in unemployment to...
Chief economics correspondent Ben Casselman explains that the U.S. labor market is caught in a "low‑hire, low‑fire" cycle, where hiring has stalled even as job openings stay elevated. Unemployment hovers around 3.7% while the quits rate dropped to a decade‑low...
US Jobs Report @HedgeyeUSA 1. Feb NFP #’s were negatively distorted by weather, strikes, et al .. so March benefited from the reversal 2. Given the distortions, revisions & labor supply dynamics, most of the signal in the monthly employment data...
The U.S. labor market posted a modest rebound in March, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 178,000 after a revised February loss of 133,000 jobs. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%, while job gains were led by healthcare, construction, and transportation...
The Federal Reserve’s March outlook projects the U.S. economy to grow at roughly 2% annually through 2028, with inflation hovering near 2.5% and unemployment edging toward 4.0%. At the same time, the latest consumer confidence index slipped below 60, marking...
The March 2026 jobs report showed employers added 178,000 positions, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health‑care led the gains with 76,000 jobs, while wage growth slowed to a 3.5% annual pace, barely keeping up with inflation. Federal employment...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that truck‑transportation employment fell to 1,464,100 jobs in March, the lowest level since December 2017. The three‑month series—January 1,465,600, February 1,464,900, March 1,464,100—shows a steady decline, erasing pandemic‑era gains. This figure is down 27,300 jobs...
US job growth bounced back in Mar, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was holding up as the war w/Iran began. Employers added 178k jobs, easily beating forecasts of 60k. Still, the household survey painted a...
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok predicts a "Nike swoosh" recovery for the U.S. economy, citing a three‑month average of 68,000 jobs—well above the Federal Reserve’s 10,000 break‑even threshold. He points to three emerging tailwinds: accelerated AI‑related data‑center spending, an industrial...
The U.S. construction sector added 26,000 jobs in March, lifting year‑over‑year employment by 57,000 positions, a 0.7% increase. Nonresidential construction drove the bulk of the gain, contributing 12,200 jobs across building, specialty trade, and heavy civil categories. The industry’s unemployment...
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
The base of comparison really should be Biden's $888 billion 2025 budget, not the 2026 budget, which was already a big increase.
The March jobs report showed the unemployment rate slipping to 4.3% as non‑farm payrolls rose by 178,000, outpacing expectations. February’s employment figures were revised down to a loss of 133,000, highlighting volatility in recent labor data. Wage growth eased to...
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
History says spreads peak 5-7 months after recessions start. Not before. By the time the NBER calls it, the move is done. $JOJO uses leading signals, not lagging labels. https://t.co/aEqM5MShko
This is the Weirdest US Labor Market I’ve Ever Seen. Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged https://t.co/AyqHHkWDji Federal government jobs lowest since 1966. Hi...
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
The U.S. labor market may start to look more like 1980s Japan -- generalists looking for ways to fill in the weaknesses of AI, small businesspeople striking out on their own, and a few specialists with valuable skills. https://t.co/wRA2yG2bYg
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
Great @lydiadepillis article. One of the things I became convinced of at CEA is that stocks (employment) & flows (hires, fires, ease of finding a job) are both important to labor market health, but economists tend to weight the former...
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
GS: Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth now stands at 53k, roughly in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. https://t.co/FCJycyPkFU
The big picture: The US economy has added only 260,000 jobs in the past year. 380,000 jobs were added in healthcare. Most other industries *lost* jobs Federal gov't -330,000 in past year Information -76,000 Manufacturing -75,000 Finance -67,000 State gov't -47,000 Professional services -40,000 Retail -30,000 Mining -17,000 #jobs
March jobs came in much stronger than expected 178,000 added versus 59,000 forecast Unemployment dipped to 4.3% Healthcare continues to drive most of the gains https://t.co/UmQcN0lnw8
Last 18 months have not been good for US industries. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/xPfF8XxwJO
