Know What's Happening in US Economy
Know What's Happening in US Economy
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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped dramatically in March, reversing a sharp decline seen in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The surge was driven largely by returning healthcare workers and a hiring wave in transportation and courier services. While headline job growth looks strong, the broader labor market remains soft, with the U‑6 unemployment rate climbing. Analysts attribute the early industrial rebound to higher PMI readings, AI adoption, and bonus depreciation, though war‑related supply‑chain effects linger.
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
Good sign supporting the bull market U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 178K in March, Beating Expectations as Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
During the 2024 campaign, Trump and Vance claimed mass deportations would free jobs for Americans. Recent labor data contradicts that promise: the three‑month average unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers rose to 4.3% in 2026, up from 4.0% in 2024. Economic...
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
The U.S. labor market added 178,000 jobs in March, pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health care, construction, and transportation and warehousing posted the strongest gains, while the movies and music sectors shed 1,100 jobs. The Bureau of Labor...
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
NFP beats, for now. Big picture, the chart shows a deceleration trend - with some some big monthly swings of late. Unemployment down to 4.3% = no Fed rate cuts. Is good news bad or good - I lose track ;-) Wage growth...
U.S. Treasury prices slipped after March employment numbers outperformed expectations, pushing yields up three to four basis points across the curve. The robust jobs report reinforced the view that the labor market is stabilizing, prompting traders to discard bets on...
Here's the somewhat troubling news in the jobs report: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but not for great reasons. There's a big drop (almost -400k) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate also fell. It appears people stopped looking...
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
U.S. non‑farm payrolls surged by 178,000 in March, far outpacing the 60,000 jobs analysts expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% versus a forecast of 4.4%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year, slightly above expectations....
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) report is being released on Good Friday, a day when U.S. equity and bond markets are closed. Despite the holiday, the data will still drive market sentiment, with S&P 500 futures already down 17 points....
U.S. labor market expectations are being clouded by the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has pushed Brent crude to about $109 a barrel and prompted a $200 billion supplemental war funding request. Analysts warn the higher energy costs could dampen hiring momentum ahead...
President Donald Trump's late‑Wednesday address on Iran sent U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher and bond prices tumbling. The sell‑off was driven by fears of higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a broader risk‑off mood ahead of a potential ground...
Freddie Mac reported the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.48%, its highest level since September 2025. The surge, driven by higher Treasury yields and geopolitical tension, threatens spring home‑buying activity and adds strain to banks' mortgage‑loan books.
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
Dude can use some good news: Job creation spiked up 178K w/#unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Get ready for a #Trump victory dance. #realestate #CRE #economy #interestrates #mortgage #TheFed #finance https://t.co/PZiEZSvGF9
Given the backdrop of the US economy, the net +178K increase in #NFPs is good relative to the +50K expected, rendering the biggest upside 'surprise' since January 2024 https://t.co/wrWXmWQyXu
US labor market showed signs of cooling in February as job openings dropped to 6.9 million, the lowest level in months. Private payroll growth slowed to an average of 18,000 jobs per month while layoffs held steady, indicating employers are pausing...
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
As long as jobless claims stay low, adding 15,000 jobs per month for 3 years will be acceptable for a neutral policy.
Initial unemployment claims slipped to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, down 9,000 from the prior week’s revised figure. The decline underscores continued labor market resilience and adds pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs future rate moves.
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Labor market thoughts: -Clearly, the breakeven job growth number to maintain stable unemployment is low right now -Nominal job growth is muted, entirely concentrated in healthcare -Wage growth continues to slow, aggregate payroll growth is consistent with maybe 4% NGDP growth
U.S. lawmakers are debating how to close a projected $25 trillion gap in the Social Security retirement trust fund, which is now expected to run out of reserves by late 2032. Proposals on the table include a $1.5 trillion Treasury‑backed investment fund...
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
I am aghast listening to people on TV discuss the NFP report of 178k as "Blowout numbers." This is an okay number, not as bad as some recent data points, not as good as others. Call it the soft prejudice of...
Analysts spotlight the State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and BlackRock's iShares fixed‑income ETFs as top picks before the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With KRE offering a 2.4% yield and iShares navigating higher oil prices, the debate...
Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.
The labor market takes a licking and keeps on ticking. The volatility in the labor market makes it challenging to parse the signal from the noise, but it does suggest momentum in the U.S. economy despite headwinds.
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...
15k job gain in manufacturing is largest one-month gain since a 22K rise in November 2023, but employment is still down 75k YOY
U.S. net interest payments on the federal debt (in billions of dollars) by fiscal year: 2020: $345 2021: $352 2022: $475 2023: $659 2024: $882 2025: $970 2026: $1,000B (projected to exceed $1 trillion) Got hard assets?
With today's blockbuster +178k print on payrolls we've now been in a bizarre yo-yo pattern alternating between positive and negative payroll numbers for ten straight months, dating to last June. https://t.co/LSW4ELkTYg
Good jobs report with 178k job growth and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3%. The revisions were small at 7K. Bond yields rise. (Note this report was pre-war.)
+178K NFP, +68K 3MMA, -7K 2M revisions U3 rate down -0.18pp to 4.26% (good) but this happened because EPOP down -0.04pp & LFPR down -0.16pp (not good) https://t.co/fDs33qdA2H
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but the U-6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% https://t.co/3G8tKnf7pR
The economy added +178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000. January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000.
Cozy mini market day for the release of the March payroll report. Globex closes at 11:15 am for Good Friday
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 2, 2026) Jobless claims data rarely lies. The 4-week moving average suggests March may bring a lower unemployment rate than February's 4.4%. Is the labor market more resilient than the headlines suggest? https://t.co/Q9AwUK9yDy
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
